Sunday, November 7, 2021

Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities

Rachel Reeves is a Member of Parliament (MP) in the United Kingdom.  She holds the office of the Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer.

On a British news channel, she was asked the following question:

Is it transphobic to say that only women have a cervix?

Chancellor Reeves has great difficulty answering this question.  Please view for yourself at the following link:


The title of this post is a quotation from Voltaire’s ‘Questions sur les miracles’ (1765).  Voltaire continued with this warning: "If you do not use the intelligence with which God endowed your mind to resist believing impossibilities, you will not be able to use the sense of injustice which God planted in your heart to resist a command to do evil. Once a single faculty of your soul has been tyrannized, all the other faculties will submit to the same fate."

Reject the absurdities of tyrants.  Do not let tyrants capture your heart and soul.  Do not become a participant in atrocities.



Monday, November 1, 2021

Los Angeles takes a Great Leap Forward

Los Angeles city planners ignored history and have chosen a name for their newest welfare program that is eerily similar to a program instituted by Mao Zedong: "The Great Leap Forward" that killed tens of millions of Chinese.

The BIG:LEAP is a basic income guarantee (BIG) program.  Los Angeles will provide approximately 3,000 individuals with $1,000 per month for 12 months. These will be unconditional, regular, and direct cash payments to individual participants that supplement existing welfare programs.  Details are available at this link:

BIG:LEAP

The program website linked to above provides this explanation of poverty:

The relentless poverty experienced by too many Angelenos emerges out of a lack of financial resources, not a lack of judgment. While Angelenos are doing everything in their power to achieve financial security, the burdens of a high cost of living, unaffordable housing options, and insufficient wages too often exceed families’ ability to confront those challenges on their own — and we know that the economic difficulties caused by COVID-19 will outlast the pandemic itself.

It is quite ironic that government regulation and taxation cause the high cost of living and unaffordable housing.  Occupational licensure and minimum wage laws cause limited access to jobs with sufficient wages.  Economic difficulties caused by COVID-19 are all the result of government mandates.  Therefore all of the causes of poverty in the above list are the result of government action.  The solution promoted is of course more government action!  Ronald Reagan said: "The more the plans fail, the more the planners plan."

In another section of the BIG:LEAP website we find this paragraph:

GBI programs are founded upon the belief that the people enduring financial instability or poverty are best positioned to make informed financial decisions that efficiently address their household’s needs— whether that means paying for rent, a new tire, or an unexpected trip to urgent care. These participants are granted the freedom to meet their most pressing needs without delay.

The planners got one thing right when they say "...the people enduring financial instability or poverty are best positioned to make informed financial decisions that efficiently address their household’s needs."  The principle underlying this sentence would solve most of society's problems: let individuals make their own decisions.





Sunday, October 31, 2021

Government is the national religion

New York Governor Kathy Hochul addressed a gathering in New York City's Christian Cultural Center on Sunday, September 26, 2021.  A short video excerpt from her speech is available at the link below:

The gospel according to Kathy

“And I wear my vaccinated necklace all the time to say, "I'm vaccinated." All of you. Yes, I know you're vaccinated. You're the smart ones. But, you know, there's people out there who aren't listening to God and what God wants. You know this. You know who they are. I need you to be my apostles.”

 


Wednesday, October 27, 2021

A new location for the goal posts (further down the field)

Now the goal for Hawaii is to keep “cases” (positive test results) under 100 per day.  The last goal of “70% of the population vaccinated” has been achieved but will not result in any change in mandates because the goal posts have been moved (again).

Gov. Ige interview with the Honolulu Star-Advertiser Spotlight Hawaii

Note that the video includes these statements:

1. “Safe Travels will continue as long as there are those traveling that are not vaccinated”.  – What is the guideline for ending this program?  Will travelers arriving in 2025 still be subject to these requirements?

2. “Governor Ige said that he is considering plans to incorporate booster shots and antigen tests into the Safe Travels program as well.” – Apparently, travelers will soon be required to have a booster shot before entering Hawaii without a quarantine.

How does Ige’s last emergency proclamation provide authority to set goals that would take effect on 1/1/2022?  This date is more than 60 days beyond the effective date of the emergency proclamation.




Tuesday, October 12, 2021

Sunday, September 19, 2021

Can vaccine mandates be justified?

 In an emergency order issued on 8/30/2021 City and County of Honolulu Mayor Rick Blangiardi imposed a vaccine mandate that went into effect on  9/13/21.

Considering the current statistics available from the Hawaii Department of Health and research on COVID-19 and the vaccines can a mandate be justified?  The following report answers this question.

Vaccine Mandate Research



Tuesday, July 20, 2021

The American Descent into Madness


Victor Davis Hanson recently published an article on the American Greatness website.  He begins with this statement: "Nations have often gone mad in a matter of months."  He continues with this:

"In the last six months, we have seen absurdities never quite witnessed in modern America. Madness, not politics, defines it. There are three characteristics of all these upheavals. One, the events are unsustainable. They will either cease or they will destroy the nation, at least as we know it. Two, the law has largely been rendered meaningless. Three, left-wing political agendas justify any means necessary to achieve them."

 This article provides many astute insights.  The following is an insight that I had not recognized on my own:

"Yet universities now have both hands around their golden goose’s neck and are determined to strangle it...The new woke admission policy ironically is targeting the liberal suburban professional family, the Left’s constituency, whose lives are so fixated on whether children graduate from Yale, Princeton, Harvard, Stanford, or like campuses."

 I urge you to read the entire article at the following link:

The American Descent into Madness

Sunday, May 2, 2021

Incomprehensible liabilities

A recent conversation about the US Federal Government's unfunded liabilities caused me to reexamine a statistic that I absorbed several years ago.  Boston University economics professor Laurence Kotlikoff stated that the US Federal Government's unfunded liabilities exceed 200 trillion dollars.  This number is quoted many times, and in many places, but I was not able to find any published details that provide the calculations that establish this number.

During my research, I found that there is a publication by the US Treasury each year titled “Financial Report of the United States Government” which provides financial statements for the Federal Government in a format like an annual report for a public corporation.  When reading this report, it is important to note that some of the amounts are listed in trillions and some in billions.  Also, note that trillions and billions are sometimes commingled in the same table or chart.

I am not accustomed to working with numbers this large and I was having trouble keeping the decimal places straight, so I created a chart:

The interesting details of the “Financial Report of the United States Government” are in the notes.  You will find a frank opinion in Note 24 on page 157 (pdf page 166) under the heading:

Sustainability and the Fiscal Gap

“This report presents data, including debt, as a percent of GDP to help readers assess whether current fiscal policy is sustainable. The debt-to-GDP ratio reached 100 percent at the end of FY 2020” ….  “As discussed further in the unaudited RSI, the projections based on this report’s assumptions indicate that current policy is not sustainable. If current policy is left unchanged, the projections show the debt-to-GDP ratio will rise to 200 percent by 2042 and reach 623 percent in 2095. Moreover, if the trends that underlie the 75-year projections were to continue, the debt to-GDP ratio would continue to rise beyond the 75-year window.”

If you are not a fan of tables and charts you can read the highlight of the “Financial Report of the United States Government” in plain English and in 1 sentence on page ii (pdf page 9):

An Unsustainable Fiscal Path

 

“The continuous rise of the debt-to-GDP ratio projections based on the assumptions in this Financial Report indicates that current policy is not sustainable.”


A recent report from Truth in Accounting titled Financial State of the Union 2020 calculates the Federal Government's unfunded liabilities as $123.11 trillion ($123,110,000,000,000).

Also, there is the US debt clock website that displays a real-time calculation of US Unfunded Liabilities.  This calculation is the sum of unfunded liabilities in Social Security, Medicare Part A, B, and D, Federal Debt held by the public, Federal Employee Benefits, and Veteran Benefits.  The total at the time of writing this blog post is $147.684 trillion ($147,684,000,000,000).  Note that this number is increasing by 12 million dollars every minute so when you visit the US Debt Clock webpage the number will be larger.

 The current estimate of US GDP from the Bureau of Economic Analysis is $22.05 trillion.  Therefore, if total unfunded liabilities (UL) are $147.684 trillion then the UL to GDP ratio is 670%.  This means that if the total economic production of the USA were dedicated to paying down the unfunded liabilities it would take 6.7 years to achieve 100% funding.

The current estimate of world GDP is $30.191.   Therefore, if US total unfunded liabilities are $147.684 trillion then the UL to world GDP ratio is 490%.  This means that if the total production of the world were dedicated to paying down the US unfunded liabilities it would take 4.9 years to achieve 100% funding.

The current population of the USA is 330,246,485.  Therefore, if US total unfunded liabilities are $147.684 trillion then the total UL per person living in the USA is $447,193.  You might be inclined to think that such a level of unfunded liabilities for each man, woman and child is not possible, but if the Federal Government continues deficit spending and continues to increase future obligations, there is no upper limit to how high this number can go until there is a complete collapse of the monetary system.

Since the financial crisis of 2008 interest rates have been lower than historical averages.  If (when) interest rates rise to historical averages the increase in US total unfunded liabilities will accelerate due to larger interest payments on the outstanding national debt.

I could not find proof that supports 220 trillion dollars as the US total unfunded liabilities.  Based on the sources listed above, I am confident that the Federal Government's unfunded liabilities are rapidly approaching $150 trillion.

Please use the comment button below to provide questions, comments, or clarifications on this topic.


Friday, March 5, 2021

Worshiping at the altar of Covid

I received the following essay in a newsletter from Tom Woods.


This is a Twitter thread by journalist John Hayward (@Doc_0).


It is about the Covid religion.


He puts it better than I could, so today's Woods dispatch simply reproduces it for you. Enjoy:


Every crisis becomes a religion if it lasts long enough.


One factor in that transformation is the Beautiful Theory phenomenon: the power elite insists its remedies are logical and politically correct so they must work, even if the actual evidence shows they obviously don't.


When Beautiful Theories crash into hard, cold reality and shatter, faith is the glue used by the elites to put their precious ideas back together. They need militant faith to get the job done: true believers eager to crush doubt and compel obedience by making war on the infidels.


Some are swept into the faith because they desperately crave a sense of control over the crisis. They need to believe Something Can Be Done, and they'd rather invest their faith in debunked Beautiful Theories than have no faith at all. Faith is a coin that demands to be spent.


Some crave social approval, and the purveyors of Beautiful Theories have immense political, economic, and cultural power to make their faith seem fashionable. Virtue signaling is such a plague in modern society because the signals are pre-packaged and made very easy to send.


Some aren't even hoping they can assert control over a crisis by converting to its religion. They'll settle for just having some meaning, some simplicity, a sense that the righteous will fare better than the unbelievers, that virtue will be rewarded while sin is punished.


That's a very common impulse with the Church of Covid, since the Beautiful Theories were so very obviously wrong. There isn't much left of the faith except the visceral communal satisfaction of hoping unbelievers will be punished for their blasphemies with sickness and death.


That sort of thing happens with all of the crisis religions, although not usually as quickly and obviously as with the Church of Covid. Look at the endless stream of movies about how the world became an apocalyptic hellscape because people didn't believe in global warming.


The last resort of every crisis religion, the last thing that puts asses in the pews, is that addiction to misery porn, the collective hope that unbelievers will suffer someday, and everyone will admit the True Faith was right all along as Judgment Day crashes down upon them.


The elite will never have the humility to admit they were wrong, and they'll never give up on politically or financially profitable "solutions" even when they obviously don't solve the problem. Founding a crisis religion means they never have to say they're sorry.


That applies to some very longstanding crises, like the War on Poverty, whose nostrums long ago transformed into fantastically expensive articles of religious faith even as mountains of data accumulated that proved they were utter failures, and often made the problems worse.


You can look for some telltale signs of a crisis transforming into a religion. The most obvious one is when the high priests tell you the "war" you've been drafted into will never end. They become very angry when asked to define success or failure, or layout exit strategies.


Watch for the moment when you're told "science" means not asking questions, defying dogma, or challenging "consensus." That is the literal definition of faith, not science.


Always keep an eye out for Moving Goalposts, which are the signature miracle of crisis religions, their version of parting the waters or loaves and fishes. Crisis religions work very hard to make their faith unfalsifiable by constantly changing the standards of evidence.


Check to see if certain people are accumulating huge amounts of money and power from a crisis. That's a pretty good sign it's turning into a religion. A crisis should be solved as quickly and efficiently as possible. Don't let it fester long enough to become a special interest.


Above all, look for the whiff of arrogance to develop around a crisis. Wise religions and effective crisis managers have something in common: a sense of humility. Crisis religions are militant faiths that quickly become arrogant, smug, and totalitarian.


Dedicated people who truly want to solve a problem will look for evidence their analysis is wrong, or their policies aren't working, and make adjustments as quickly as possible, no matter the cost or embarrassment to themselves. This is humility.


Crisis religions are arrogant. They reject criticism, insist their Beautiful Theories must be right because they're ideologically pure - they fit snugly into a worldview that must not be challenged. Their plans only fail because their commands were disobeyed or sabotaged.


The high priests of a crisis religion see devils everywhere, leering at them from the rubble of every failure. Only sin can explain why their Beautiful Theories are tarnished. Failure is never their fault, so it must be yours. They find your lack of faith disturbing.


And you know what? A lot of people want to see the world that way, including a great many self-described atheists. They hunger for the comfort of faith and the vibrant energy of militancy. They want to be right, and they want the wrong to suffer for their folly.


Conservatives think religious faith in the State is terrifying and wonder why so many embrace it. It's because uncertainty is much more frightening. A simple false story is better than a complex true one, and with enough faith, maybe we can force the simple story to be true.


To exorcise these demons from your life,

click here:

Tom Woods Liberty Classroom


Saturday, January 9, 2021

Elementary insights of the social sciences

 A recent speech by Hans-Hermann Hoppe includes the following insights:

Apodictic or quasi-apodictic statements regarding elementary insights of the social sciences.

·        It is impossible to increase social prosperity by increasing the money supply. How else should one explain that despite the existing possibility of any amount of increase in paper money, poverty continues to exist in some places, unchanged. An increase in the amount of money can only ever lead to a redistribution of a given stock of welfare goods. It favors the first and early recipients of the new, additional money at the expense of the last and late users.

 ·         Human action is the conscious pursuit with scarce resources of goals regarded as valuable.

 ·         No one can deliberately not act.

 ·         Every action strives to increase the subjective well-being of the actor.

 ·         A larger quantity of a good is always preferred to a smaller quantity of the same good.

 ·         The earlier attainment of a given goal by given means is preferred to its later attainment.

 ·         Production must always precede consumption.

 ·         Only those who save – spend less than they earn – can increase their prosperity permanently (unless they steal).

 ·         What is consumed today cannot be consumed again tomorrow.

 ·         Price fixings above the market price, such as minimum wages, lead to unsalable surpluses, i.e. to forced unemployment.

 ·         Price-fixing below the market price, such as rent ceilings leads to shortages and a persistent shortage of rented housing.

 ·         Without private ownership of production factors (as in classical socialism) there can be no factor prices and without factor prices an economic calculation is impossible.

 ·         Taxes – compulsory charges – are a burden on income producers and/or property owners and reduce production and capital formation.

 ·         No form of taxation is compatible with the principle of equality before the law because any taxation involves the creation of two unequal classes of persons with conflicting interests: those of the (net) taxpayer on the one hand, for whom taxes are a burden one seeks to reduce, and on the other hand the class of recipients or rather (net) consumers of tax, for whom taxes are a source of income and a delight that one seeks instead to increase as much as possible.

  ·         Democracy – majority rule – is incompatible with private property – individual property and self-determination – and leads to creeping socialism, i.e. to ongoing redistribution and the progressive erosion of all private property rights.

 ·         Whatever is subsidized by taxes, such as lounging about or doing things for which there is no profitable customer demand is further encouraged and strengthened by the subsidy.

 ·         Whoever is not personally liable for the repayment and redemption of so-called public debts incurred by him or with his participation, as is the case today with all politicians and parliamentarians, will frivolously and without hesitation take up debts for his own present advantage and to the detriment of an impersonal future public.

 ·         Whoever controls a territorial money printing monopoly enforced by state power, like all so-called central banks, will also make use of this privilege and, even if an increase in the amount of money can never increase social prosperity as a whole, but can only redistribute it, will still print more and more new money for his own benefit and that of his direct affiliates and closest business partners.

 ·         And finally, there is this: Whoever or whichever institution has a territorial monopoly on the use of force and jurisdiction, as actually claimed by all states, will also make use of it. I.e., he will not only exert violence himself, but he will also declare his exertion of violence to be lawful by virtue of his ultimate legal representative. In all conflicts and disputes of a private person with representatives of this institution (the state) no independent, neutral third party decides on good and evil, or about the guilt and innocence of the opponents, but always and invariably an employee, i.e., a dependent representative, one of the two conflict parties (the state) itself, with a corresponding, reliably predictable partisan, "state-supporting" result.

 

Obviously, these insights are in blatant conflict with social reality. In this reality there are monopolies of violence, monopolies of money printing, taxes, taxpayers and tax consumers, tax-subsidized idleness and uselessness, majority rule (democracy), public debt, politicians and parliamentarians exempt from liability, capital consumption (consumption without saving), redistribution of property, minimum wages, and maximum rents. And what's more, all these acts and institutions are not subject to constant criticism. On the contrary, they are, almost monotonously and from all quarters, presented and praised as self-evident, correct, good, and wise.


The entire speech has been published by the Mises Institute is available at this link:   My Path to the Austrian School of Economics